UNITED24 Media carries an
article entitled “Inside Russia’s Secret War Games Where Generals Seized
Gotland and Defeated NATO,” reporting that according to the Dossier Center, a
Russian investigative media outlet, published on September 8, Russia’s General
Staff had conducted the simulations at the Military Academy of the General
Staff, using specialized software to model terrain, military units, weapons, and the
actions of opposing forces.
To read the article, visit HERE.
To read the Dossier Center's original report, visit HERE.
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Time-Scale
Dependence in Defense-Spending Interdependence:
Evidence
from the United States, China, and Japan Using Generalized RPC
This
article is a personal tribute to my academic mentor in Japan, Professor Taizo
Yakushiji, who passed away on January 9, 2026. It reflects the analytical
techniques I learned from him in the early 1990s and demonstrates how I have
built upon that foundation in light of recent academic literature.
（本稿は、2026年1月9日に逝去された恩師・薬師寺泰蔵教授に捧げる追悼草稿であり、学術誌等を通じた正式な出版・公刊を目的としたものではありません。）
Abstract
This
article revisits the Richardson-type arms race model by introducing a
frequency-domain perspective on strategic interaction. Using SIPRI military
expenditure data for Japan, the United States, and China from 1990 to 2024, it
develops a generalized relative power contribution (RPC) framework that
integrates order-invariant identification with time-scale decomposition. The
analysis yields three findings. First, low-frequency dynamics exhibit stronger
cross-national contributions, indicating structural interdependence alongside
domestic institutional constraints, whereas high-frequency dynamics are
increasingly dominated by own contributions, reflecting short-run internal
adjustment. Second, conventional orthogonalized RPC introduces systematic
directional bias due to ordering dependence, particularly by understating
China’s influence. Third, bootstrap inference shows that while the qualitative
structure of interaction is robust, the magnitude of estimated effects varies
across frequencies, especially at higher frequencies. These results suggest
that arms competition is better understood as a multi-scale and probabilistic
process rather than a single reaction relationship. By providing an
order-invariant and frequency-specific measure of contribution, the framework
offers a more precise characterization of defense-spending interdependence,
with implications for empirical studies of deterrence, strategic interaction,
and policy responsiveness in contemporary security environments.
[US-China-Japan RPC dataset for H Akutsu Tribute to Prof Yakushiji]
概要は次の通り。
Wargaming in a Resilience Context
（レジリエンス領域におけるウォーゲーミングの活用）
なお、UK Resilience Academy（UKRA）は「レジリエンス（危機管理・対応・復興）に関する学習と人材育成のための国家拠点である。当機関は、ますます複雑化するリスク環境において、社会全体のあらゆる組織が準備及び対応能力を強化できるよう支援している。サイバー脅威から公衆衛生上の緊急事態、インフラの課題に至るまで、混乱を予測し、対処し、そこから回復するために必要な能力を構築している。当機関は、政府、地域の緊急対応機関、企業、ボランティア団体、地域社会のリーダーの他、重要国家インフラ（CNI）分野のパートナーと連携して活動している。レジリエンスは共有されるべき責任であるという認識の下、提供するプログラムはあらゆる組織・個人にとって適切かつアクセスしやすいものとなるよう設計されている。当機関は、意味のある変化をもたらし、よりレジリエントな英国の実現に貢献するために必要な知識、自信、そしてネットワークを、個人および組織に提供している。」（https://ukresilienceacademy.org/about-ukra/ より）
日本の熊本でまた大規模地震が起こってしまいました。防災庁は今年11月に発足予定。既存の復興庁とは統合されない由。日本でも官邸主導のみならず、各省・庁等の様々なレベルで様々な演習・シミュレーションを頻繁に行ってもらいたいものです。
（了）
This
year’s Connections US Professional Wargaming Conference was hosted by the Naval
Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California, from June 23 to 25. First
and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my university for
supporting my participation in this conference.
(Source: NPS 2025 Annual, p. 19)
And myself.
It
seems that the Japan-US alliance is deepening within the professional wargaming
space.
If
the current momentum in professional wargaming is viewed as the third or fourth
major surge of the post-WWII era—having kicked off in the mid-2010s alongside
the Third Offset Strategy—it may well become the longest-lasting surge in
history.
What
follows is my personal highlight summary and After Action Review (AAR) of this
year’s conference. The full conference agenda can be found on the website below:
Accommodation:
Hotel Del Monte
I
arrived in Monterey one day prior to the start of the conference. I stayed at
the historic Hotel Del Monte, which is located directly on the naval base. Many
people in my generation in Japan grew up drinking Del Monte tomato juice as
children, usually without knowing anything about the company's historical
origins. Because of this personal connection, I thoroughly enjoyed reading
about the history of both the hotel and the brand, as well as exploring the
grounds and soaking in the impressively classic, historic atmosphere.
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This
year's sessions were held in Glasgow Hall at the Naval Postgraduate School. The
venue was highly convenient, situated only a few minutes' walk from the hotel.
Day 1
Keynote
Speech: Colonel Jason Perry (Ret.)
An
unexpected but happy reunion! The opening keynote speaker turned out to be a
graduate of the 62nd General Course at the National Institute for Defense
Studies (NIDS) in Tokyo, and he remembered me. He now serves as the Director of
the Wargaming Center at NPS.
Morning
Session 1: Dr. Stephen Downes-Martin, “Advanced Wargaming Professional
Development”
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As
always, I thoroughly enjoyed his insights. However, if time had permitted, I
would have liked to ask about implementing a “peer-review system” as a
potential solution to some of these systemic issues. To my knowledge,
peer-review practices in wargaming are more common in the UK; I am very curious
to learn to what extent they are currently being practiced or considered in the
US.
My
Presentation: "Two Russian Naval Wargames Before the Russo-Japanese War, 1904-05"
After
lunch, I delivered my presentation, entitled “The Predictive Power of Russian
Naval Wargames Before the Russo-Japanese War, 1904–1905.”
I
want to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who attended and contributed
to the discussion with their thoughtful questions. I was particularly pleased
when a few civilian student interns at NPS approached me after the session to
ask follow-up questions. It is always rewarding to engage with dedicated
students who show a genuine interest in wargaming research. Just as I did with
my presentation at Connections US 2024, I plan to develop this research into a
peer-reviewed academic article in the near future.
Session 3:
Michaels Gawrys, “Qualitative Research Concepts for the Improvement of
Wargaming”
This presentation outlined the specific types of data that archival and empirical research can yield, detailing its practical application and critical importance for improving wargame design. Key methodological approaches discussed included the observational analysis of wargaming structures and implementation, the qualitative analysis of live game execution, and comparative design analysis.
Game
Demos: Kevin Willamson, “Contemporary Chinese Wargaming”
Many across the Connections community have closely followed his online analysis regarding the Chinese Institute for Command and Control’s approach to wargaming. (https://paxsims.wordpress.com/2026/06/11/the-chinese-institution-for-command-and-control-on-wargaming/)
Having
the opportunity to see his findings demonstrated in person was a true highlight
of the session.
As
Sun Tzu would say: “Know their wargaming and know your own, and you will never
be defeated in a hundred battles.” (知彼之兵棋、知己之兵棋、百戰不殆。)
Day
2
Keynote
Speech: LTC Charles Phillip Rowan
Dr.
Rowan is US Army Simulation Operations Officer serving as an Assistant
Professor and Interim Director of the Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation (MOVES) Institute at NPS.
Bridging these two domains is crucial: from a wargaming perspective, leveraging M&S tools is a long-standing priority; conversely, from a simulation perspective, incorporating wargaming methodologies offers immense value. While budgetary rivalries are occasionally unavoidable within defense organizations, exploring technical synergies between the two camps is a far more constructive path than deepening the divide. This integrated approach is well-documented in recent literature, such as Charles Turnitsa et al., Simulation and Wargaming (Wiley, 2022).
Session
1: Panel
Dr. Will Dawson, “Convergence of the AI and
Analytic Wargaming Revolutions”
Dr. John Hanley, “What Artificial Intelligence
Can and Cannot Do”
Col. Matt Caffrey, Jr (Ret.), “An Expedient
Net Assessment of U.S. vs. Adversary Wargaming”
Session
2: David Dubin, “Modality, Possible Worlds, and Gaming Insights: The Vocabulary
(and Structure?) of Modal Logic in Wargaming”
Session
3: Prof. Brock Dubbels, “Capturing Reasoning at the Point of Context: Moving
beyond the fiction of post-hoc wargaming to preserve the evidentiary trace of
human judgement”
Session 4: Joseph Miranda, “Modeling Conflict in the 21st Century Persian
Gulf”
The
presenter is a veteran wargame designer specializing in conflict simulations of
the Persian Gulf region. The first half of his session felt like a masterclass
in Middle Eastern history, seamlessly illustrated through board wargames of his
own design. In fact, by carefully studying and playing his suite of six
interconnected games, one could easily gain a comprehensive understanding of
modern Middle Eastern politics and conflicts. This immersive, game-based
approach to history is an educational methodology I intend to integrate into my
own teaching.
I
ultimately decided to focus on a digital operational wargame centered on
targeting decision-making. While drones were available in the asset/capability box, their
numbers were strictly limited, reflecting the designers' note that these
capabilities remain under active development. From an educational and training
perspective, the game is useful for analyzing how to optimize the
allocation and joint employment of missiles and uncrewed systems for both
offensive and defensive operations.
Keynote
Speech: Dr. John Hanley, “Operational Gaming”
He
began his career in nuclear submarines in 1972. He served with the CNO
Strategic Studies Group for 17 years as an analyst and Program/Deputy Director.
He went on to serve as special assistant to Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific
Fleet, at the Institute for Defense Analyses, and in several senior positions
in the Office of the Secretary of Defense working on force transformation,
acquisition concepts, and strategy. He earned his bachelor’s and master’s
degrees in engineering science from Dartmouth College and his Ph.D. in
operations research and management sciences from Yale. He is the author of The
U.S. Navy and the National Security Establishment: A Critical Assessment (Lynne
Rienner, 2023). (https://www.usni.org/people/john-t-hanley-jr)
This keynote speech was about his upcoming two-volume book, entitled Operational Gaming: A Theory with Implications for AI.
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A
Cancelled Session: “Miniature Wargaming: The Pros and Cons of Wargaming With
Miniatures”
This
was another session I had been highly anticipating. In my own course, I
utilize Neil Thomas’s One-Hour Wargames: Practical Tabletop Battles for Those with Limited Time and Space. While his ruleset appears to be designed primarily with miniatures in mind, I
adapt the system to run without them. Unfortunately, the speaker was unable to
attend, and the session was cancelled. I certainly hope they will be able to
present at next year's conference.
Closing:
Thank you and see you next year!
Wargame
Lottery: Ian Brown Got a Wooden Shogi Set!
I
had thought the Game Night lottery was a permanent annual fixture at
Connections US, but it was not originally scheduled this year. As a result,
attendees who brought games to contribute were initially left wondering what to
do with them. Fortunately, thanks to the quick action of the Planning
Committee, the lottery was successfully held at the very end of the conference.
Ian Brown, a veteran and highly respected wargame designer, won one of the two
Shogi sets. The set is from Yamagata Prefecture, a region in Japan
famous for its traditional wooden Shogi sets—particularly the fine
craftsmanship of its pieces.
Additional
Day
4: Venue Matters! The Two “Waynes”
I
had yet another reason to be excited about being at Naval Support Activity
Monterey: walking the same grounds as two legendary “Waynes” of naval
history—Wayne E. Meyer and Wayne P. Hughes, Jr.
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Without
the Aegis system, Japan’s missile defense would be defenseless. Without the
Salvo Model, my own simulation work would be frameless.
Ultimately,
it was another exceptional conference and an incredibly fruitful opportunity
for me. I eagerly look forward to next year!
Thank
you!
End
