This
year’s Connections US Professional Wargaming Conference was hosted by the Naval
Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California, from June 23 to 25. First
and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my university for
supporting my participation in this conference.
While
the official attendance numbers have not yet been released, I heard that the
crowd was roughly 180 to 200 people based on the size of the conference hall.
The conference is clearly growing. Japanese representation was particularly
strong, including six attendees from the Japan Air Self-Defense Force Air and
Space Studies Institute, two from the Policy Simulation Office at the National
Institute for Defense Studies, two from a major Japanese electric company, and
a former Chief of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.
(Source: NPS 2025 Annual, p. 19)
And myself.
It
seems that the Japan-US alliance is deepening within the professional wargaming
space.
If
the current momentum in professional wargaming is viewed as the third or fourth
major surge of the post-WWII era—having kicked off in the mid-2010s alongside
the Third Offset Strategy—it may well become the longest-lasting surge in
history.
What
follows is my personal highlight summary and After Action Review (AAR) of this
year’s conference. The full conference agenda can be found on the website below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x9y5N3pWZtPV2rW4R-DSq8VliiKgCbKNCNanxxLG0es/edit?gid=514104830#gid=514104830
Accommodation:
Hotel Del Monte
I
arrived in Monterey one day prior to the start of the conference. I stayed at
the historic Hotel Del Monte, which is located directly on the naval base. Many
people in my generation in Japan grew up drinking Del Monte tomato juice as
children, usually without knowing anything about the company's historical
origins. Because of this personal connection, I thoroughly enjoyed reading
about the history of both the hotel and the brand, as well as exploring the
grounds and soaking in the impressively classic, historic atmosphere.
Conference
Venue: Glasgow HallThis
year's sessions were held in Glasgow Hall at the Naval Postgraduate School. The
venue was highly convenient, situated only a few minutes' walk from the hotel.
https://nps.edu/documents/10180/108523087/NPS_Campus_Map.pdf/cd7997ab-6813-ef47-b629-ff4304aafddd?t=1582863396187
Day 1
Keynote
Speech: Colonel Jason Perry (Ret.)
An
unexpected but happy reunion! The opening keynote speaker turned out to be a
graduate of the 62nd General Course at the National Institute for Defense
Studies (NIDS) in Tokyo, and he remembered me. He now serves as the Director of
the Wargaming Center at NPS.
In
his address, he briefed the audience on the NPS Wargaming Center’s core
approach, its strategic focus, and how the center fits into the broader NPS
ecosystem. You can learn more about their work at the NPS Wargaming Center website.
Morning
Session 1: Dr. Stephen Downes-Martin, “Advanced Wargaming Professional
Development”
While
there were several other compelling presentations in this time slot, I was
drawn to this session on “advanced” professional development. As is often the
case with his work, the presentation focused on the pathological and deceptive
aspects of professional wargaming, as well as strategies to mitigate them.
Having participated in his “Wargaming Deception Working Group” in 2025 and the “Unethical Wargaming Working Group” in 2021, much of the material was familiar to me.
As
always, I thoroughly enjoyed his insights. However, if time had permitted, I
would have liked to ask about implementing a “peer-review system” as a
potential solution to some of these systemic issues. To my knowledge,
peer-review practices in wargaming are more common in the UK; I am very curious
to learn to what extent they are currently being practiced or considered in the
US.
My
Presentation: "Two Russian Naval Wargames Before the Russo-Japanese War, 1904-05"
After
lunch, I delivered my presentation, entitled “The Predictive Power of Russian
Naval Wargames Before the Russo-Japanese War, 1904–1905.”
I
want to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who attended and contributed
to the discussion with their thoughtful questions. I was particularly pleased
when a few civilian student interns at NPS approached me after the session to
ask follow-up questions. It is always rewarding to engage with dedicated
students who show a genuine interest in wargaming research. Just as I did with
my presentation at Connections US 2024, I plan to develop this research into a
peer-reviewed academic article in the near future.
Session 3:
Michaels Gawrys, “Qualitative Research Concepts for the Improvement of
Wargaming”
This
presentation outlined the specific types of data that archival and empirical
research can yield, detailing its practical application and critical importance
for improving wargame design. Key methodological approaches discussed included
the observational analysis of wargaming structures and implementation, the
qualitative analysis of live game execution, and comparative design analysis.
Game
Demos: Kevin Willamson, “Contemporary Chinese Wargaming”
Many
across the Connections community have closely followed his online analysis
regarding the Chinese Institute for Command and Control’s approach to
wargaming. (https://paxsims.wordpress.com/2026/06/11/the-chinese-institution-for-command-and-control-on-wargaming/)
Having
the opportunity to see his findings demonstrated in person was a true highlight
of the session.
As
Sun Tzu would say: “Know their wargaming and know your own, and you will never
be defeated in a hundred battles.” (知彼之兵棋、知己之兵棋、百戰不殆。)
Day
2
Keynote
Speech: LTC Charles Phillip Rowan
Dr.
Rowan is US Army Simulation Operations Officer serving as an Assistant
Professor and Interim Director of the Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation (MOVES) Institute at NPS.
His
speech introduced the history, educational curriculum, and research programs of
the MOVES Institute. He opened with a humorous nod to the institutional “divide”
between wargaming and simulation (within the broader field of Modeling and
Simulation), highlighting how the institute’s interdisciplinary framework
actively seeks to “innovate to support wargaming.”
Bridging
these two domains is crucial: from a wargaming perspective, leveraging M&S
tools is a long-standing priority; conversely, from a simulation perspective,
incorporating wargaming methodologies offers immense value. While budgetary
rivalries are occasionally unavoidable within defense organizations, exploring
technical synergies between the two camps is a far more constructive path than
deepening the divide. This integrated approach is well-documented in recent
literature, such as Charles Turnitsa et al., Simulation and Wargaming
(Wiley, 2022).
Session
1: Panel
Dr. Will Dawson, “Convergence of the AI and
Analytic Wargaming Revolutions”
Dr. John Hanley, “What Artificial Intelligence
Can and Cannot Do”
Col. Matt Caffrey, Jr (Ret.), “An Expedient
Net Assessment of U.S. vs. Adversary Wargaming”
Rather
than summarizing all three short presentations here, looking directly at the
uploaded slides is the best way to understand their focus. What binds these
talks together is a clear sense of urgency—sometimes explicit, sometimes
implicit—driven by the fast-moving technological and security environments
surrounding the US. In the end, the real value of this panel wasn't just the
subject matter, but the caliber of the speakers addressing it.
Session
2: David Dubin, “Modality, Possible Worlds, and Gaming Insights: The Vocabulary
(and Structure?) of Modal Logic in Wargaming”
This
was one of the most stimulating presentations of the conference due to its
highly innovative approach to wargame design. The presenter applied the formal
vocabulary of modal logic to the discipline, framing wargames as structured
explorations of counterfactual scenarios or “possible worlds.” Within this
framework, designers can map, analyze, and regulate how games generate
strategic insights and handle hidden information. I found this perspective
fascinating; a quick initial review suggests a compelling alignment with
Epistemic Game Theory. Given my ongoing research into the applications of game
theory and its variants within wargaming, this is an area I intend to explore
further.
Session
3: Prof. Brock Dubbels, “Capturing Reasoning at the Point of Context: Moving
beyond the fiction of post-hoc wargaming to preserve the evidentiary trace of
human judgement”
I
was drawn to this presentation by its provocative draft title: “Your
After-Action Review of Wargaming Is Fiction.” If that premise holds true,
then perhaps this very After-Action Review is fictional as well—at least to
some extent (against my will!). Going far beyond the basic argument that human memory is limited,
the presenter introduced empirical evidence showing that memory is actually a
post-event construction. Crucially, he outlined methodologies to overcome these
cognitive biases. He also noted that the human brain can tolerate far more
complexity than is traditionally assumed. Ultimately, this session forced me to
rethink how we record wargames, leverage artificial intelligence, and approach
human-machine teaming.
Session 4: Joseph Miranda, “Modeling Conflict in the 21st Century Persian
Gulf”
The
presenter is a veteran wargame designer specializing in conflict simulations of
the Persian Gulf region. The first half of his session felt like a masterclass
in Middle Eastern history, seamlessly illustrated through board wargames of his
own design. In fact, by carefully studying and playing his suite of six
interconnected games, one could easily gain a comprehensive understanding of
modern Middle Eastern politics and conflicts. This immersive, game-based
approach to history is an educational methodology I intend to integrate into my
own teaching.
Game
Night: DIGICAT Corner
I
ultimately decided to focus on a digital operational wargame centered on
targeting decision-making. While drones were available in the asset/capability box, their
numbers were strictly limited, reflecting the designers' note that these
capabilities remain under active development. From an educational and training
perspective, the game is useful for analyzing how to optimize the
allocation and joint employment of missiles and uncrewed systems for both
offensive and defensive operations.
Day
3
Keynote
Speech: Dr. John Hanley, “Operational Gaming”
This
keynote speech was one of my major interests in this year’s conference. Dr. John Hanley is a well-known scholar in wargaming. I have
come across him at Connections US and UK conferences in the past and learned a
lot from him.
He
began his career in nuclear submarines in 1972. He served with the CNO
Strategic Studies Group for 17 years as an analyst and Program/Deputy Director.
He went on to serve as special assistant to Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific
Fleet, at the Institute for Defense Analyses, and in several senior positions
in the Office of the Secretary of Defense working on force transformation,
acquisition concepts, and strategy. He earned his bachelor’s and master’s
degrees in engineering science from Dartmouth College and his Ph.D. in
operations research and management sciences from Yale. He is the author of The
U.S. Navy and the National Security Establishment: A Critical Assessment (Lynne
Rienner, 2023). (https://www.usni.org/people/john-t-hanley-jr)
This
keynote speech was about his upcoming two-volume book, entitled Operational
Gaming: A Theory with Implications for AI.
It
was incredibly generous of him to summarize his forthcoming book for the
audience ahead of its publication. I eagerly look forward to reading the full
text when it is released this fall.
A
Cancelled Session: “Miniature Wargaming: The Pros and Cons of Wargaming With
Miniatures”
This
was another session I had been highly anticipating. In my own course, I
utilize Neil Thomas’s One-Hour Wargames: Practical Tabletop Battles for Those with Limited Time and Space. While his ruleset appears to be designed primarily with miniatures in mind, I
adapt the system to run without them. Unfortunately, the speaker was unable to
attend, and the session was cancelled. I certainly hope they will be able to
present at next year's conference.
Closing:
Thank you and see you next year!
Wargame
Lottery: Ian Brown Got a Wooden Shogi Set!
I
had thought the Game Night lottery was a permanent annual fixture at
Connections US, but it was not originally scheduled this year. As a result,
attendees who brought games to contribute were initially left wondering what to
do with them. Fortunately, thanks to the quick action of the Planning
Committee, the lottery was successfully held at the very end of the conference.
Ian Brown, a veteran and highly respected wargame designer, won one of the two
Shogi sets. The set is from Yamagata Prefecture, a region in Japan
famous for its traditional wooden Shogi sets—particularly the fine
craftsmanship of its pieces.
Congratulations!
Additional
Day
4: Venue Matters! The Two “Waynes”
I
had yet another reason to be excited about being at Naval Support Activity
Monterey: walking the same grounds as two legendary “Waynes” of naval
history—Wayne E. Meyer and Wayne P. Hughes, Jr.
The
former is revered as the “Father of Aegis,” while the latter
is the “Father of the Salvo Combat Model” and the author of Fleet Tactics:
Theory and Practice (Naval Institute Press, 1986). Being at the very
institution where their operational legacies are felt added an extra layer of
meaning to the venue.
Without
the Aegis system, Japan’s missile defense would be defenseless. Without the
Salvo Model, my own simulation work would be frameless.
Ultimately,
it was another exceptional conference and an incredibly fruitful opportunity
for me. I eagerly look forward to next year!
Thank
you!
End
